ASEAN steel demand will fall below 80 million tons by 2020

Recently, the Secretary General of the Southeast Asian iron and Steel Association said at the meeting that the steel consumption of the six ASEAN countries is expected to drop by 2.1% to 79.3 million metric tons by 2020, mainly due to the decline in steel consumption in the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand.
The Philippines has seen the largest decline in demand, which is expected to decline by 8.1% this year, reflecting a sharp decline in construction activity during the covid-19 pandemic. One of the main buyers of this billet in the ASEAN region will be the import side of the Philippines. In addition, steel demand in Malaysia is expected to decline by 8% and Thailand by 6.6%.

Nevertheless, Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to achieve positive growth in steel consumption by 4% and 3% respectively in 2020. According to the world bank, Vietnam is the only one of the six ASEAN countries expected to achieve positive GDP growth this year, or 2.8%.

In his speech, the Secretary General of the Southeast Asian iron and steel association mentioned that covid-19 has had a significant impact on ASEAN economy, and most people expect a V-shaped recovery by 2021. Historically, since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, ASEAN countries have recovered very quickly, and it usually takes less than a year to get back on track. It is estimated that by 2021, the steel consumption of the six ASEAN countries will increase by 5%, reaching 83.2 million tons, of which the demand of the Philippines is expected to increase by 6.9%, and that of Thailand will increase by 5%. Meanwhile, demand in Vietnam and Indonesia will grow moderately by 3.3% and 3.4% respectively by 2021.